Mapping the dynamics of seagrass aboveground carbon stock in a developing coastal area: case study of Kuta Mandalika, Lombok Island, Indonesia

Understanding seagrass dynamics is crucial for the effective management and conservation of seagrass meadows. However, such information remains limited for many regions worldwide, including Kuta Mandalika on Lombok Island, Indonesia. This rapidly developing coastal area, which is home to both tourism infrastructure and an international race circuit, hosts extensive seagrass meadows whose condition and dynamics require careful assessment. Establishing a baseline is essential for long-term monitoring, especially in light of ongoing coastal development. In this study, we integrated time-series Sentinel-2 imagery with a robust seagrass aboveground carbon stock (AGC) mapping model to monitor changes in seagrass AGC from 2019 to 2023. Our analysis shows that seagrass AGC exhibits a clear seasonal pattern, with peak biomass typically occurring in May and June each year. Additionally, results from Seasonal-Trend Decomposition using Loess (STL) and a Generalized Additive Mixed Model (GAMM) with an AR(1) error structure indicate a statistically significant decline in seagrass AGC associated with the construction of the Kuta Mandalika Circuit. These findings provide a critical baseline for distinguishing between natural seasonal variability and long-term anthropogenic impacts, offering valuable insights to inform future monitoring, management, and conservation strategies for these vital coastal ecosystems. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2025.