Simulation of Population Growth and Estimation of Breeding Parameters for Kejobong Goats in Purbalingga Regency, Indonesia

This study aimed to simulate population growth and estimate breeding parameters of Kejobong goats in Purbalingga Regency, Central Java, Indonesia. Population data were obtained from the Agriculture Office of Purbalingga Regency analyzed using a simulation model with technical coefficients derived from the literature. The parameters observed included birth rate, mortality, and selection ratios at different growth stages. The simulated population increased from 58,336 heads in 2024 to 131,254 heads in 2028, representing a cumulative increase of 125 over five years, with an average annual growth rate of approximately 18. The average Natural Increase (NI) was 38.74, categorized as high. The Net Replacement Rate (NRR) reached 319.2 for males and 211.80 for females. The total projected output over five years was 131,254 heads, with culling rates of 7.63 for males and 9.43 for females in 2028. These findings demonstrate the strong potential of Purbalingga Regency as a breeding source for Kejobong goats. However, optimization requires improved management of female populations, strategic selection, and sustainable breeding programs. Such measures are essential to ensure productivity, support local livestock development, and conserve this valuable genetic resource. 2025 by the authors.