A Generation Expansion Planning Procedure Considering the Construction Delay: A Case of Sumatra Power Systems

The delay in power plant construction affected the generation expansion planning (GEP) result, decrease the generating capacity, and increase the Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) index. The LOLP constraint is required in GEP to obtain an adequate reserve in system, which called as reserve margin. An optimal reserve margin will ensure the economic operation and system's reliability. This research objective is to modify the GEP considering the possibility of delay in power plant construction. The model is simulated on Sumatra Power System to find to modify the number, size, and capacity of additional generating unit in 10 years planning horizon. There are two scenarios called base case and delay. The base case scenario consider the most economical total cost under the standard constraint which the simulation result require 25% reserve margin. Delay scenario consider 1, 2, and 3 years delay of existing construction project which require 7.86% additional reserve margin in average. Therefore, the required reserve margin to consider construction delay is 32.86%.