Climate Changes Impact on Solar Photovoltaic in Tropical Islands, Case Study: Sulawesi Island

This study examines the impact of climate change on the output of solar photovoltaic (PV) in tropical islands, focusing on Sulawesi Island, Indonesia. Monthly temperature changes are the analyzed variable. Two scenarios were carried out based on business as usual (BAU) projections from historical data for 1981-2022 and a scenario of a temperature increase of 1.5 degrees Celsius at the end of this century. A systems dynamic approach was used to carry out the analysis. The historical data shows an increase in temperature when comparing 2022 and 1981; the most significant average temperature increase is in South Sulawesi at 0.31 degrees Celsius, while an anomaly occurred in Southeast Sulawesi, which experienced a temperature decrease of 0.6 degrees Celsius. The projections until 2060 based on historical data show an increase in temperature in almost all regions. This condition affects the PV output, which requires sunlight but is unfriendly to solar heat. By comparing PV output in 2060 and 2022, it is known that in Gorontalo province, the reduction in PV capacity ranges from 25.35 MWp to 25.39 MWp for every degree Celsius increase. Meanwhile, in North, West, Central, South, and Southeast Sulawesi, the decreasing PV range is 30.34 - 30.64, 33.25-25.5, 129.26-129.32, 85.04-94.26, 75-96-76.94, respectively. © 2024 IEEE.