IOD and ENSO-Related Time Series Variability and Forecasting of Dengue and Malaria Incidence in Indonesia

Dengue and malaria are mosquito-borne infectious diseases driven by climate change and have an endemic impact in tropical and subtropical regions of the world, particularly in South and South-East Asia. Most studies examined the effect of local climate variability, temperature, and precipitation on dengue and malaria incidence. Nevertheless, the effects of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on dengue incidence are still rarely discussed. Besides, the study of the influence of IOD and ENSO on malaria incidence remain unexplored. This paper examined the influence of IOD and ENSO on the interannual variability of dengue and malaria incidence in all Indonesia provinces using Pearson correlation. Historical time series data on dengue and malaria incidence in all Indonesia provinces from 2005 to 2018 were investigated for time series prediction using deep Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). © 2020 IEEE.