Curriculum a comparative study of LSTM, GRU, and Conv-LSTM network model in forecasting COVID-19 new cases in Indonesia

Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) pandemic has emerged as one of the biggest challenge faced by researchers, especially in public health system. Since the virus spread and mutates quickly, strategies are needed so that the public health system doesn't collapse due to overcapacity. Modeling and forecasting accurately the COVID-19 daily new cases is very important to understand and help carry out risk management for the outbreak control. To obtain the estimation of the Indonesian daily cases of COVID-19 based on daily confirmed cases, we present a comparative study between three deep learning methods in this paper: Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), and Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory (Conv-LSTM). The data used is daily confirmed cases from September 1st to September 7th, 2021. The result is Conv-LSTM model produces better performance than other methods. Here we also provide 7 day out-of-sample forecast for daily cases from September 1st to September 7th, 2021 using each model