Prediction and Simulation for Land Use and Land Cover Change of Paddy Field Influence by Salinization in Coastal Demak Regency

The extent of coastal rice paddy agricultural land is vulnerable to land use and land cover (LULC) changes to non-agricultural uses due to land degradation, one of which is caused by salinity. This study aims to detect and project LULC changes up to 2031, particularly in coastal rice paddy areas affected by salinity, by comparing LULC in 2017, 2019, and 2021. Sentinel-2 Imagery is used for LULC classification, with recordings selected during the generative phase of rice growth to obtain the most optimal rice paddy area. There are six LULC classifications: water, wetland, low-medium-high vegetation cover, and built-up area. To understand the impact of salinity on crops, several vegetation indices (VIs) such as NDVI, SAVI, EVI, and ARVI are used. The LULC changes classified according to VIs are compared with the MOLUSCE plugin based on artificial neural network-multilayer perceptron (ANN-MLP) and Cellular Automata (CA). The comparison of VIs results shows that NDVI is better at describing LULC changes due to the influence of salinity, with a kappa value of 0.63 and a Correctness of 72.565. The LULC projection using CA in all VIs indicates that wetland areas are more likely to convert into water bodies, suggesting that high salinity land tends to be unproductive for rice paddies, making it prone to conversion. © 2024 Tivianton et al.