Spatial risk assessment of foot and mouth disease in Sukabumi regency, Indonesia: A GIS and multicriteria decision analysis approach

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral disease that affects cloven-hoofed animals and causes
substantial economic losses. This study aimed to conduct a spatial risk assessment of FMD in Sukabumi Regency,
Indonesia, to identify high-risk areas and guide mitigation efforts. The research integrated Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Multicriteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). Sixteen thematic maps were analyzed, representing various risk factors related to livestock demographics, infrastructure and market access, veterinary capacity and environmental conditions. Seventeen expert opinions were used to weigh these factors’ relative importance in influencing FMD risk. The GIS-based risk modelling identified high-risk zones along livestock movement corridors and areas with high livestock density. The model demonstrated good predictive ability (AUC = 0.808) when validated against 2024 outbreak data. The findings highlight the critical role of livestock movement and trade connectivity in FMD transmission. The risk map generated in this study can be a valuable tool for policymakers and veterinary authorities to prioritize interventions, allocate resources effectively, and implement targeted strategies to mitigate FMD risk. The integrated GIS and MCDA approach offers a replicable framework for spatial risk assessment of FMD in other regions with similar challenges.