Modeling the plantation area of geographical indication product under climate change: Gayo Arabica coffee (coffea arabica)

The increase in temperature and changes in rainfall patterns over the long term can cause changes in the suitability level of the land to produce Gayo Arabica Coffee as a geographically indicated product in the future. Therefore, this paper aims to: (i) identify bioclimatic elements that affect the suitability of coffee grown areas; and (ii) finding out the impact on the suitability level of coffee grown areas in the Gayo highland. To achieve the research goals, data of bioclimatic elements from the Gayo highland and WorldClim were processed using ArcMap 10.3 and MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy) software to predict the possible effects of climate change on distribution shift of the Gayo Arabica Coffee grown areas. Based on the developed model, the suitability of the coffee grown areas is vulnerable to the effects of climate change in the future, indicated by a decrease in suitable grown-Areas. Changes in a distribution shift of grown areas and required adaptation for short-and long-Terms are discussed further in this paper.