Erosion Prediction Using the SWAT Model for Land Use Planning in the Upper Progo Sub Watershed

Research on erosion in the Upper Progo sub watershed is urgently needed to assess the impact of land use changes and to provide land use recommendations that result in lower erosion rates. In this study, we applied the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Analysis of erosion data from various land uses in the study area indicated that average erosion rates increased from 95.91 tons/yr in 2018 to 107.17 tons/yr in 2022. Land use changes in the sub watershed have significantly impacted erosion levels, particularly in steep areas that are more susceptible to soil degradation. Poor land management practices have accelerated soil erosion, further exacerbated by the loss of vegetation cover, which making soil particles more prone to detachment and being carried away by water. The proposed land use should prioritize conservation-based management. The simulation results indicate that the recommended land use patterns could significantly reduce average erosion up to 51.34%. © The Authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2025.