Prey species richness and secondary forest among the key factors shaping Javan leopard distribution

Apex predators serve as ecological indicators of a landscape's capacity to maintain ecological structure, function, and resilience. The Javan leopard (Panthera pardus melas G. Cuvier, 1809), an endangered subspecies endemic to Java, faces escalating threats from habitat loss and anthropogenic pressures. Identifying robust ecological drivers of its distribution is essential for informing effective conservation strategies. In this study, we employed ensemble species distribution modeling using presence-only occurrence data and a suite of abiotic, biotic, and anthropogenic variables to predict the potential distribution of the Javan leopard. The models demonstrated high predictive performance (True Skill Statistic: 0.863–0.878; Area Under the Curve: 0.973–0.979), revealing two main clusters of high habitat suitability in western and eastern Java, with fragmented patches in central Java. Prey species richness and proximity to secondary forests—those recovering from past disturbances—emerged as the strongest predictors of leopard presence. While primary forests (i.e., relatively undisturbed natural ecosystems) and broader landscape features also contributed to habitat suitability, our findings emphasize the importance of trophic interactions and habitat heterogeneity in sustaining leopard populations within human-modified landscapes. The results indicate that habitat protection alone is insufficient; conservation strategies must also prioritize the maintenance of prey populations and the preservation of diverse forest mosaics. Such integrated approaches are essential for ensuring the long-term persistence of this apex predator and the broader ecosystems it supports. © 2025 The Author(s)