Species Distribution Modeling of Ficus fistulosa Reinw. ex Blume in Java, Indonesia Using a MaxEnt-Based Approach in the BCCVL EcoCommons Platform

Ficus fistulosa is a keystone species in tropical forests, playing a crucial role in ecosystem stability and biodiversity conservation. Comprehending its distribution pattern is crucial for effective conservation and management efforts. This study employs species distribution modeling (SDM) to predict the potential habitat of F. fistulosa in Java Island, Indonesia. The approach that was utilized included the collection of data on the occurrence and environmental conditions of F. fistulosa, the modeling of species distribution by the utilization of the maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt), and the evaluation of the accuracy of the model. We used climate data (temperature, precipitation) from WorldClim version 2.1. A total of 19 bioclimatic variables, identified as Bio1 to Bio19, were used. Future projections were generated using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP585) scenario, representing a high-emission and fossil-fuel-intensive development trajectory. The bioclimatic variables for this scenario were obtained from the UKESM1-0-LL General Circulation Model (GCM) with a spatial resolution of 30 arc-seconds (~1 km2) via the EcoCommons climate dataset repository. The Area Under the Curve (AUC) value was employed to evaluate the reliability of the model produced. Model validation indicates high predictive performance, with key environmental variables such as precipitation, temperature seasonality, and elevation significantly influencing habitat suitability. The results highlight priority conservation areas and suggest that future land-use changes and climate variability may impact the species distribution. The area of highly suitable habitats will significantly decrease by the year 2100, especially in highland and hydrologically critical regions. Moderate suitable areas decrease to 14.3%, high suitability areas reduce to 25.6%, and very high suitability areas shrink to 8.6%. These findings offer significant insights for biodiversity conservation strategies and ecological management of F. fistulosa in Java Island. Integrating F. fistulosa into climate-adaptive restoration is essential for preserving biodiversity and enhancing ecosystem resilience. Copyright: ©2025 The authors.