Long-Term Electricity Demand Forecast Using Multivariate Regression and End-Use Method: A Study Case of Maluku-Papua Electricity System

Tumiran, Tumiran and Sarjiya, Sarjiya and Putranto, Lesnanto Multa and Putra, Edwin Nugraha and Budi, Rizki Firmansyah Setya and Nugraha, Candra Febri (2021) Long-Term Electricity Demand Forecast Using Multivariate Regression and End-Use Method: A Study Case of Maluku-Papua Electricity System. In: 2021 International Conference on Technology and Policy in Energy and Electric Power (ICT-PEP), 29-30 September 2021, Jakarta.

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Abstract

One of the most important stages in electric power system planning is load forecasting. An accurate demand forecast model is required to create the most optimal plan. Long-term demand forecasts are developed in this study using regression and end-use models. Simulation is carried out to determine the load demand of the Maluku-Papua system through 2050. The variables that have the greatest influence on demand forecasting, according to data analysis, are gross regional domestic product (GRDP), population, electrification ratio, and electricity price. The electricity demand in Maluku-Papua is expected to rise by 5.7 in the business as usual (BaU) scenario and 6.7 in the High scenario. The peak load is expected to increase by 5.6 in the BaU scenario and 6.5 in the High scenario. Furthermore, the results of the demand forecast can be used to determine policies and the planning of the electric power system. © 2021 IEEE.

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Additional Information: Cited by: 2
Uncontrolled Keywords: Electric power system planning; Electric power utilization; Forecasting; Population statistics; Business-as-usual; Demand forecast; Electricity demand forecasting; Electricity demands; Electricity system; End-use method; End-uses; Maluku-papua; Multivariate regression; Study case; Regression analysis
Subjects: T Technology > TK Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering
Divisions: Faculty of Engineering > Electrical and Information Technology Department
Depositing User: Sri JUNANDI
Date Deposited: 30 Sep 2024 00:40
Last Modified: 30 Sep 2024 00:40
URI: https://ir.lib.ugm.ac.id/id/eprint/4312

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