Determinants of COVID-19 Fatality Rates in Indonesia: a Configurational Analysis of Government Policies and Societal Conditions

This paper systematically identifies the determinants of COVID-19 death rates at the initial stages of the outbreak in Indonesia by considering configurations of government conditions (responsiveness, ability to control case rate, and capacity to cure infected people) and societal conditions (vulnerability and compliance). Configurational analysis using crisp-set QCA was employed to analyze these sets of conditions and outcomes in 34 provinces throughout Indonesia. The results show that the high ability of local government to control the spread of the disease is a necessary and sufficient condition for a low death rate.

However, the opposite condition (the low ability of government) is only necessary but not sufficient for a high fatality rate. To create sufficient conditions for a high death rate, the low ability of local governments to restrain the spread of the virus requires other specific conditions, particularly a low level of community obedience to the restriction policy. The present study highlights that the institutionalization of a new normal life during the pandemic through regulative, normative and cultural-cognitive mechanisms is of paramount importance.