Utility of surveillance data for planning for dengue elimination in Yogyakarta, Indonesia: A scenario-tree modelling approach

Bannister-Tyrrell, Melanie and Hillman, Alison and Indriani, Citra and Ahmad, Riris Andono and Utarini, Adi and Simmons, Cameron P. and Anders, Katherine L. and Sergeant, Evan (2023) Utility of surveillance data for planning for dengue elimination in Yogyakarta, Indonesia: A scenario-tree modelling approach. BMJ Global Health, 8 (11). ISSN 20597908

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Abstract

Introduction Field trials and modelling studies suggest that elimination of dengue transmission may be possible through widespread release of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes infected with the insect bacterium Wolbachia pipientis (wMel strain), in conjunction with routine dengue control activities. This study aimed to develop a modelling framework to guide planning for the potential elimination of locally acquired dengue in Yogyakarta, a city of almost 400 000 people in Java, Indonesia. Methods A scenario-tree modelling approach was used to estimate the sensitivity of the dengue surveillance system (including routine hospital-based reporting and primary-care-based enhanced surveillance), and time required to demonstrate elimination of locally acquired dengue in Yogyakarta city, assuming the detected incidence of dengue decreases to zero in the future. Age and gender were included as risk factors for dengue, and detection nodes included the probability of seeking care, probability of sample collection and testing, diagnostic test sensitivity and probability of case notification. Parameter distributions were derived from health system data or estimated by expert opinion. Alternative simulations were defined based on changes to key parameter values, separately and in combination. Results For the default simulation, median surveillance system sensitivity was 0.131 (95 PI 0.111 to 0.152) per month. Median confidence in dengue elimination reached 80 after a minimum of 13 months of zero detected dengue cases and 90 confidence after 25 months, across different scenarios. The alternative simulations investigated produced relatively small changes in median system sensitivity and time to elimination. Conclusion This study suggests that with a combination of hospital-based surveillance and enhanced clinic-based surveillance for dengue, an acceptable level of confidence (80 probability) in the elimination of locally acquired dengue can be reached within 2 years. Increasing the surveillance system sensitivity could shorten the time to first ascertainment of elimination of dengue and increase the level of confidence in elimination. © 2023 Author(s). Published by BMJ.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Cited by: 0; All Open Access, Gold Open Access
Uncontrolled Keywords: adolescent; adult; age; Article; child; conceptual framework; controlled study; dengue; diagnostic test; disease model; disease simulation; disease surveillance; female; gender; health care; health care planning; human; incidence; Indonesia; major clinical study; male; population risk; population size; primary medical care; probability; risk factor; sensitivity analysis; sensitivity and sensibility; vector control
Subjects: R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine > RA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicine
Depositing User: Annisa Fitria Nur Azizah Annisa Fitria Nur Azizah
Date Deposited: 16 May 2024 01:55
Last Modified: 14 Jun 2024 06:20
URI: https://ir.lib.ugm.ac.id/id/eprint/1103

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