Analysis of Renewable Energy Project Delays on The Indonesia's Energy Transition Process, Case Study: Java Bali System

In order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, all countries, including Indonesia, are trying to utilize clean energy in their energy supply. To be able to realize the use of clean energy and reduce the effect of greenhouse gases, Indonesia has decided to accelerate the energy transition so that it can achieve NZE by 2060. The problem that is often encountered in power generation projects is delays in power generation projects, which have not been considered in the current power plant planning. Based on this, this paper will conduct a study by considering aspects of the success and delay ratio of a power plant project in planning. By considering these aspects, plant planning will be carried out using the MILP method and then the influence of the delay and success ratio will be analyzed on the renewable energy mix, LCOE, and the plants that will replace it. Based on the results obtained, The extent of the delay in capacity refers to the success ratio, delays, and achievements of the power plant projects. Delayed VRE PP up to 2 GW, and based on the results, it was found that these generators would be substituted with Gas Machines up to 2000 MW. This affects the LCOE of the system, increasing it from 9.77 c/kWh to up to 8 c/kWh. This LCOE calculation does not yet account for the unavailability of LNG, which would lead the Gas Machine to utilize more expensive HSD (High-Speed Diesel), potentially causing a further increase in the LCOE.