Integrating dynamic modeling into health risk analysis to reduce the exposure of potentially hazardous elements

This study aimed to explore the challenges posed by air pollution near cement industry and the potential health impacts on residents. To address health risk associated with air pollution, a unique blend of environmental strategies was introduced by implementing measures such as increasing stack heights, planting trees known for particulate absorption, and promoting the use of protective masks. These interventions were strategically guided by dynamic modeling system implemented through STELLA software. The model predicted that the most efficient combination of treatments would take approximately 240 months to significantly reduce metal concentrations and associated carcinogenic risk for the nearest population. In scenarios where stack heights were increased by 60 m and 90 m, the effectiveness in lowering average metal concentration was 5.38% and 24.07%, respectively. Similarly, when 2550 and 3900 were trees planted, the effectiveness in reducing average metal concentration was 2.33% and 24.12%, respectively. The use of cloth masks led to a reduction in carcinogenic risk of 36.90% for adults and 36.93% for children. Meanwhile, the use of disposable masks led to a significant reduction of 96.30% for adults and 78.93% for children. The most effective approach for reducing airborne metal exposure was found to be the use of a multi-sectoral method that applied a combined optimistic scenario. The results provided valuable information on the understanding of the local-scale prediction of health hazards associated with metal exposure in ambient air.