Using syndromic measures of mortality to capture the dynamics of COVID-19 in Java, Indonesia, in the context of vaccination rollout

Djaafara, Bimandra A. and Whittaker, Charles and Watson, Oliver J. and Verity, Robert and Brazeau, Nicholas F. and Widyastuti, Widyastuti and Oktavia, Dwi and Adrian, Verry and Salama, Ngabila and Bhatia, Sangeeta and Nouvellet, Pierre and Sherrard-Smith, Ellie and Churcher, Thomas S. and Surendra, Henry and Lina, Rosa N. and Ekawati, Lenny L. and Lestari, Karina D. and Andrianto, Adhi and Thwaites, Guy and Baird, J. Kevin and Ghani, Azra C. and Elyazar, Iqbal R. F. and Walker, Patrick G. T. (2021) Using syndromic measures of mortality to capture the dynamics of COVID-19 in Java, Indonesia, in the context of vaccination rollout. BMC Medicine, 19 (1). ISSN 17417015

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Abstract

Background: As in many countries, quantifying COVID-19 spread in Indonesia remains challenging due to testing limitations. In Java, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were implemented throughout 2020. However, as a vaccination campaign launches, cases and deaths are rising across the island. Methods: We used modelling to explore the extent to which data on burials in Jakarta using strict COVID-19 protocols (C19P) provide additional insight into the transmissibility of the disease, epidemic trajectory, and the impact of NPIs. We assess how implementation of NPIs in early 2021 will shape the epidemic during the period of likely vaccine rollout. Results: C19P burial data in Jakarta suggest a death toll approximately 3.3 times higher than reported. Transmission estimates using these data suggest earlier, larger, and more sustained impact of NPIs. Measures to reduce sub-national spread, particularly during Ramadan, substantially mitigated spread to more vulnerable rural areas. Given current trajectory, daily cases and deaths are likely to increase in most regions as the vaccine is rolled out. Transmission may peak in early 2021 in Jakarta if current levels of control are maintained. However, relaxation of control measures is likely to lead to a subsequent resurgence in the absence of an effective vaccination campaign. Conclusions: Syndromic measures of mortality provide a more complete picture of COVID-19 severity upon which to base decision-making. The high potential impact of the vaccine in Java is attributable to reductions in transmission to date and dependent on these being maintained. Increases in control in the relatively short-term will likely yield large, synergistic increases in vaccine impact. © 2021, The Author(s).

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Cited by: 5; All Open Access, Gold Open Access
Uncontrolled Keywords: COVID-19; COVID-19 Vaccines; Humans; Immunization Programs; Indonesia; SARS-CoV-2; Syndrome; Vaccination; Article; coronavirus disease 2019; disease transmission; epidemic; human; incidence; Indonesia; infection control; infection rate; mortality rate; risk factor; rural area; vaccination; administration and dosage; epidemiology; immunology; isolation and purification; mortality; preventive health service; procedures; syndrome; therapy; vaccination
Subjects: R Medicine > RB Biomedical Sciences
Divisions: Faculty of Medicine, Public Health and Nursing > Biomedical Sciences
Depositing User: Sri JUNANDI
Date Deposited: 28 Sep 2024 03:01
Last Modified: 28 Sep 2024 03:01
URI: https://ir.lib.ugm.ac.id/id/eprint/4495

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