Quantitative analysis of automobile sector in Indonesian automotive roadmap for achieving national oil and CO₂ emission reduction targets by 2030

The dominance of private vehicles in the Indonesian transport modal mix has led to an enormous energy demand from oil and transport-related externalities. In 2018, to increase the sustainability of the automotive industry, the Indonesian government established an industrial roadmap with strong links to the national energy policy and CO2 emission reduction targets. The present manuscript proposes a model that could enable a quantitative projection of oil demand, CO2 emissions and assess the impact of proposed policy initiatives under the Activity, Mode Share, Intensity, and Fuel Choice (ASIF) framework. The results showed that improvements in vehicle fuel economy and the adoption of alternative fuels-such as bioethanol, biodiesel, and electricity-could reduce oil and CO2 emissions by up to 30.8% and 33.2%, respectively, as compared to the business as usual (BAU) case by 2030. The most significant contribution was derived by adopting policies related to biofuel blending: bioethanol (E-10) and biodiesel (B-50) reduced oil emissions by up to 5.44% and 10.30%, respectively. The electrified vehicle policy and improvements related to the new vehicle fuel economy contributed a combined 10.38% reduction. Meanwhile, the mandatory use of CNG made a contribution of only 0.98%. The end-of-life vehicle (ELV) retirement policy was also evaluated, with the results showing that it could contribute up to 3.49%. The findings suggest that the roadmap should be restructured to include a specific biofuel blend ratio mandate and new vehicle fuel economy targets. Additionally, a step-by-step implementation timeline needs to be established to enable a sufficient transition period during which the industry sector can adjust.